A great August Analisi by Robert Bernocchi - Settembre 1, 2023Settembre 1, 20230 The remarkable trend of the Italian market continues and also the last month achieves record numbers, never reached before… After the excellent results of the summer, there was a lot of curiosity about the numbers of the past month. Not much to say, they are remarkable, as we can see here: Simply, it’s the best August ever, not only since 2010, but also since 2000 (in the 2000-2010 decade, for instance, it was rare to exceed 20M in August). I won’t go into details, because we all know that during the summer months, not much important is usually released, or we would be comparing it to periods with significantly higher annual ticket sales, which is now pointless. In short, it even surpassed the fantastic 2019 and an extraordinary “The Lion King,” as we will see in the data for that month. And it’s worth noting (to understand how difficult it is to reach and exceed 40M in August) that the best result so far (apart from 2019) was 31.2M in 2015. But let’s start with the top ten of 2023 and what worked best: And let’s compare it straight away with 2022: No need for big comments. In this past August, we had two products above 11 million (one even above 14M, Oppenheimer), while last year the excellent result of Minions 2 (above 10M) was a completely isolated case. This August, in fact, also conquered the record for the excellent result of Meg 2, able to surpass 5M (it’s precisely the type of product that is underestimated, but is fundamental for the entire industry). In total, six films have surpassed one million (I also consider Blue Beetle, which definitely achieved it with the extra Cinetel), while in August 2022 there were only three. And during that period, Porco Rosso ended up in the top ten with less than 200,000 euros, now it takes more than 300,000 euros for the tenth position. A very different story compared to 2019, where essentially in August we made slightly less than in August 2023, with this top ten: Although, as mentioned, the total box office revenue is essentially the same, the individual results of the top ten titles are very different. As seen above, The Lion King alone earns slightly less than the combined sum of Oppenheimer and Barbie, while Fast & Furious – Hobbs & Shaw earns slightly more than Meg 2. In total, that month there were four films above one million, as mentioned in August 2023 there were six. And from second to ninth place, the films in last month’s top ten perform better than their respective positions in 2019. Needless to say, even in August 2023, the top films achieved very significant percentages. Suffice it to say that the first two titles (Oppenheimer and Barbie) represent over 60% (61.2%, to be precise) of the market, and if we also add Meg 2, we reach 73.6%. Let’s move on to talk about Italian cinema. Nothing particularly original, we know that August is not a month in which our film industry shines particularly (but only due to lack of supply, not because it is not capable). The month ended with 2.12 million euros and a 5.07% share, objectively low numbers, but they don’t give us any answers about the state of our film industry. In fact, in 2022 we were even at just over 600,000 euros in revenue and a 3.43% share, while in 2019 we were at 1.9 million and a 4.70% share. It was a different story in 2021, when our production achieved 5.5 million and a 34.4% share, thanks to two strong releases like MeCome un gatto in tangenziale – Ritorno a Coccia di Morto. We may regret the fact that this innovative and courageous path has not been continued (even with just one strong title in August), but as I always say, if a team doesn’t take the field, there’s no point in talking about defeat. Obviously, even in August, no title seems to have benefited from promotion for Italian and European cinema. These are the top five grossing films (at 3.50 euros) of the month: Jeanne Du Barry – La favorita del re: 210,403 euros Passages: 107,375 Le otto montagne: 98,281 Rapito: 96,675 La maledizione della Queen Mary: 93,769 As you can see, three out of five are long-running titles, while the first two are actual releases in August. In terms of distributors, there was a good competition between Warner and Universal, with the former winning with 17.8 million euros and 42.7% against the latter’s 14.2 million and 34.1%. Walt Disney is far behind with 3.2 million and 7.8%. And let’s also take a look at the year’s figures, from January to August: As you can see, we are facing another recovery, thanks to the 303.2M collected so far, which we hope will not be nullified by the data of the next quarter. In fact, for example, compared to 2018, we now only lose 10% (of course, it was a terrible year, but it’s still important that we get closer). And it’s positive that the distance from 2019 has dropped below 20% (-19.8%). At this point, what can we expect from September? In terms of Italian production, obviously an important part is played by the cinema that goes to the Venice Film Festival. In particular, the most important releases are “Io Capitano” by Matteo Garrone (September 7th) and “Felicità” by Micaela Ramazzotti (September 21st). On the comedy front, “Una commedia pericolosa” with Enrico Brignano (released on August 30th, obviously a title in exploitation in September) is worth mentioning. On the American side, important films like “The Equalizer 3 – Senza tregua” (the previous chapter had conquered 1.4M with us) and “Tartarughe Ninja: caos mutante” (over 100M dollars in domestic box office) arrived on August 30th. Then there’s “The Nun 2” (September 6th), which, if it achieved at least a similar figure to the original (5.4M), would give a great contribution to the month’s accounts. A truly fundamental title for September will be “Assassinio a Venezia” (September 14th, considering that even the last “Assassinio sul Nilo”, released in a difficult period, had conquered 5.5M). It’s more difficult to make predictions for “Asteroid City” by Wes Anderson (same date). “Gran Turismo: La storia di un sogno impossibile” (September 20th) didn’t start strong in the domestic market, hopefully it will be a different story for us. “The Expendables” (September 21st) would be great if it stayed on par with the previous chapter (approximately 3M). Finally, European cinema is represented by “Jeanne du Barry – La favorita del re” (also August 30th), which has already had several premieres in recent weeks. The releases on September 28th (especially “The Creator” and “The Palace”) will mainly have the bulk of their box office in October, so they will not affect the September data. Considering the holding power of “Oppenheimer” (which will surely be the highest-grossing film of the month), we can still hope for a decent September, knowing well that it is not an easy month and in which – in three situations – we collected between 40 and 42 million. A figure that, if repeated this September, would be absolutely welcome…